Sunday, June 15, 2008
2007-08 5v5 Goaltender Performance (Full Season)
I finally ran the full-season's worth of shot quality/goaltending statistics (see Mid-Season stats.) There was some discussion over at James Mirtle's site, with some people claiming that Evgeni Nabokov was deserving of the Vezina Trophy - and not Martin Brodeur. The stats don't bear that out:
Brodeur faced tougher shots than Nabokov, and did a way better job of stopping them. There's no way to argue from a shot quality perspective that Nabokov deserves the award.
Here's the rest of the league, minimum 20 GP:
Nabokov Expected Save PCT 909, Actual 908 - GAA 0.03 higher than average goaltender
Brodeur Expected Save PCT 906, Actual 920 - GAA 0.34 *lower* than average goaltender
Brodeur faced tougher shots than Nabokov, and did a way better job of stopping them. There's no way to argue from a shot quality perspective that Nabokov deserves the award.
Here's the rest of the league, minimum 20 GP:
GP TOI SOG GA SPCT GAA EGA ESPT EGAA DELTAGAA
DUBIELEWICZ20 787:01 394 31 921 2.36 41.1 895 3.13 -0.77
LUNDQVIST 72 3063:24 1201 99 917 1.94 137 885 2.68 -0.74
GIGUERE 58 2287:15 1001 65 935 1.71 92.97 907 2.44 -0.73
HILLER 23 863:21 354 27 923 1.88 37.02 895 2.57 -0.7
FLEURY 35 1285:49 614 41 933 1.91 53.92 912 2.52 -0.6
THOMAS 57 2465:18 1186 83 930 2.02 105.8 910 2.58 -0.56
CONKLIN 33 1311:57 714 47 934 2.15 58.5 918 2.68 -0.53
BRYZGALOV 64 2578:31 1266 91 928 2.12 112.3 911 2.61 -0.5
PRICE 41 1669:29 837 63 924 2.26 75.77 909 2.72 -0.46
LEHTONEN 48 1953:15 1066 88 917 2.7 102.2 904 3.14 -0.43
HUET 52 2170:39 1013 77 923 2.13 91.53 909 2.53 -0.4
BRODEUR 77 3392:35 1386 110 920 1.95 129.5 906 2.29 -0.34
LEGACE 66 2616:37 1084 88 918 2.02 102.4 905 2.35 -0.33
HASEK 41 1587:27 545 42 922 1.59 50.68 907 1.92 -0.33
ELLIS 44 1584:18 805 62 922 2.35 70.76 912 2.68 -0.33
TELLQVIST 22 871:55 413 33 920 2.27 37.57 909 2.59 -0.31
KHABIBULIN 50 1943:04 850 77 909 2.38 86.75 897 2.68 -0.3
OSGOOD 43 1728:03 663 58 912 2.01 66.61 899 2.31 -0.3
AULD 32 1199:26 520 42 919 2.1 47.57 908 2.38 -0.28
VOKOUN 69 2910:13 1510 122 919 2.52 134.5 910 2.77 -0.26
LUONGO 73 2908:45 1318 103 921 2.12 115.7 912 2.39 -0.26
GERBER 57 2248:37 1086 94 913 2.51 103.2 905 2.75 -0.24
BIRON 62 2427:39 1241 95 923 2.35 103.5 916 2.56 -0.21
DIPIETRO 63 2631:01 1173 106 909 2.42 114.4 902 2.61 -0.19
LALIME 32 1267:26 561 54 903 2.56 57.76 897 2.73 -0.18
NIITTYMAKI 28 938:43 474 45 905 2.88 47.46 899 3.03 -0.16
THEODORE 53 2243:30 967 87 910 2.33 92.65 904 2.48 -0.15
LABARBERA 45 1721:56 945 86 908 3.00 90.3 904 3.15 -0.15
TOSKALA 66 2720:58 1201 111 907 2.45 116.6 902 2.57 -0.12
KIPRUSOFF 76 3087:15 1379 118 914 2.29 123.7 910 2.40 -0.11
WARD 69 2718:41 1233 113 908 2.49 117.6 904 2.60 -0.1
LECLAIRE 54 2075:24 880 67 923 1.94 70.49 919 2.04 -0.1
TURCO 62 2556:30 1022 91 910 2.14 94.91 907 2.23 -0.09
MILLER 76 3130:07 1399 122 912 2.34 125.8 910 2.41 -0.07
BUDAJ 35 1405:13 587 52 911 2.22 52.53 910 2.24 -0.02
BACKSTROM 58 2441:35 1110 90 918 2.21 89.42 919 2.20 0.01
NABOKOV 77 3266:15 1190 109 908 2 10 7.49 909 1.97 0.03
NORRENA 37 1359:34 548 57 895 2.52 53.55 902 2.36 0.15
HARDING 29 1141:15 578 54 906 2.84 51.01 911 2.68 0.16
RAMO 22 954:17 453 46 898 2.89 43.27 904 2.72 0.17
MASON 51 1902:51 850 86 898 2.71 80.27 905 2.53 0.18
SABOURIN 24 854:58 383 38 900 2.67 35.36 907 2.48 0.19
KOLZIG 54 2292:20 929 98 894 2.57 89.88 903 2.35 0.21
SMITH 34 1433:34 597 64 892 2.68 58.21 902 2.44 0.24
ROLOSON 43 1670:23 795 79 900 2.84 71.72 909 2.58 0.26
EMERY 31 1205:08 505 52 897 2.59 46.44 908 2.31 0.28
GARON 47 1848:13 882 87 901 2.82 78.14 911 2.54 0.29
HEDBERG 36 1384:59 676 73 892 3.16 64.26 904 2.78 0.38
HOLMQVIST 47 1932:04 760 91 880 2.83 68.73 909 2.13 0.69
TOIVONEN 23 842:20 359 51 857 3.63 38.76 892 2.76 0.87
Labels: Goaltending, Shooting
Monday, June 2, 2008
Replacement-Level Redux: Goals vs Wins
In the comments section for my previous post, Tom Tango pointed out that it would be interesting to see the breakdown of goals for and against when defensemen and forwards are missing from the lineup. For 2002-2008, we get the following:
The results seem a little counterintuitive. Goal prevention drops the same amount when a forward and a defenseman are out of the lineup, while goal scoring drops much more when the defenseman is out. And the gap, 11.9 goals/82 lost defensive games to 8.3 for forwards, is nowhere near the almost 3:1 difference we saw when we just looked at wins and losses.
It's possible there's a problem with the ESPN GF/GA data - such things have cropped up before. Or including SO and OT goals is skewing the results. It's hard to say, but I'll take a closer look at the numbers.
Here's some yearly detail:
In In In Out Out Out
+/- GF GA +/- GF GA
D 2.22 2.816 2.788 -9.67 2.707 2.825
F 3.21 2.833 2.794 -5.13 2.776 2.839
The results seem a little counterintuitive. Goal prevention drops the same amount when a forward and a defenseman are out of the lineup, while goal scoring drops much more when the defenseman is out. And the gap, 11.9 goals/82 lost defensive games to 8.3 for forwards, is nowhere near the almost 3:1 difference we saw when we just looked at wins and losses.
It's possible there's a problem with the ESPN GF/GA data - such things have cropped up before. Or including SO and OT goals is skewing the results. It's hard to say, but I'll take a closer look at the numbers.
Here's some yearly detail:
Forwards (~19 mins TOI or more)
Per 82 Games
Year +/- +/-GF +/-GA
2002-03 0.79 -5.88 -5.10
2003-04 10.73 -3.21 7.52
2005-06 13.83 -4.07 9.76
2006-07 8.34 -2.34 6.00
2007-08 8.15 -3.70 4.45
Average 8.34 -4.70 3.64
Defensemen (~21 mins TOI or more)
Per 82 Games
Year +/- +/-GF +/-GA
2002-03 5.84 -8.44 -2.60
2003-04 7.18 -5.89 1.29
2005-06 19.05 -11.46 7.59
2006-07 8.47 -5.963 2.51
2007-08 18.02 -14.40 3.62
Average 11.89 -8.93 2.96
Labels: Replacement Level
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