Saturday, December 29, 2007

What happens when you pull your goalie?

Someone asked me the other day what teams expect to happen when they pull their goalies at the end of the game. My answer, qualitatively, was that it increases the likelihood of a goal - either for or against - and because a loss is the same whether by one goal or two goals, pulling your goalie gets you extra goals and extra ties and wins.

But what about the quantitative outcome? This chart shows the 5v5 goal-scoring rate this season in the last six minutes of games where the goalie was pulled by one team.

G/60GF/60GA/60
Goalie Pulled20.05.514.6
No Goalie Pulled3.05

The scoring rate without the goalie pulled is somewhat lower than the overall rate in all games, which we expect because these are close games (ie - you wouldn't pull the goalie if you were down 5 goals). But when teams pull their goalie, the outcome is usually negative: the opposing team is almost 10 times as likely to put the game away with an empty-net goal, but again, a loss is a loss whether it's by one goal or two.

On the positive side, teams score 5.5 goals per 60 minutes when they pull their goalies, which makes them almost four times as likely to score the tying goal than if they'd kept the goalie in. Overall, 40-60 games per year get tied up with the goalie pulled, compared to less than 10 if goalies stayed in. This represents a average gain of 2-2.5 points in the standings per team, clearly justifying the strategy.

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I have often wondered about this. Thanks for posting it. If a team is four times more likely to score a goal with the goalie pulled, but 10 times more likely to give one up, what does that tell us about the best time to pull a goalie? Is it really with just about a minute left when down by one, or do NHL coaches need to rethink their timing?
 
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liked your statistical analysis. MIT did a stud in the 80's in which they actuallly determined when the optimal time was to pull the goalie. They compared the chances of having a goal scored on an empty net vs the chances of scoring a goal when you outnumber the opposition 6-5. The poptimal time for pulling the goalie was aboput 1 min 36 sec BUT that was when the red line was in place. Now with the rearrangement of the ice it would be interested to see what the optimal time would be. Also as a coach I quite often will pull the goalie when the face-off is in the opposing zone when there is 10 or less seconds left to play in the 1st or 2nd period. The best way to judge this is quite simple - have your best player shoot a series of pucks the entire length of the rink in practice. Time each shot from when you yell go until it hits the end boards. Now add 3 seconds to allow for the time it takes to win the face-off and to allow for the greed of the opposing team once they see the net open. This time will be your optimal time to pull the goalie.It works sometimes. But I do it quite often to scare the other team. Keeping them off balance has a carryover effect
 
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