Behindthenet Blog

I finally ran the full-season's worth of shot quality/goaltending statistics (see Mid-Season stats.) There was some discussion over at James Mirtle's site, with some people claiming that Evgeni Nabokov was deserving of the Vezina Trophy - and not Martin Brodeur. The stats don't bear that out:

Nabokov Expected Save PCT 909, Actual 908 - GAA 0.03 higher than average goaltender
Brodeur Expected Save PCT 906, Actual 920 - GAA 0.34 *lower* than average goaltender

Brodeur faced tougher shots than Nabokov, and did a way better job of stopping them. There's no way to argue from a shot quality perspective that Nabokov deserves the award.


Here's the rest of the league, minimum 20 GP:

           GP TOI     SOG  GA SPCT GAA  EGA  ESPT EGAA DELTAGAA
DUBIELEWICZ20 787:01  394  31  921 2.36 41.1  895 3.13 -0.77
LUNDQVIST  72 3063:24 1201 99  917 1.94 137   885 2.68 -0.74
GIGUERE    58 2287:15 1001 65  935 1.71 92.97 907 2.44 -0.73
HILLER     23 863:21  354  27  923 1.88 37.02 895 2.57 -0.7
FLEURY     35 1285:49 614  41  933 1.91 53.92 912 2.52 -0.6
THOMAS     57 2465:18 1186 83  930 2.02 105.8 910 2.58 -0.56
CONKLIN    33 1311:57 714  47  934 2.15 58.5  918 2.68 -0.53
BRYZGALOV  64 2578:31 1266 91  928 2.12 112.3 911 2.61 -0.5
PRICE      41 1669:29 837  63  924 2.26 75.77 909 2.72 -0.46
LEHTONEN   48 1953:15 1066 88  917 2.7  102.2 904 3.14 -0.43
HUET       52 2170:39 1013 77  923 2.13 91.53 909 2.53 -0.4
BRODEUR    77 3392:35 1386 110 920 1.95 129.5 906 2.29 -0.34
LEGACE     66 2616:37 1084 88  918 2.02 102.4 905 2.35 -0.33
HASEK      41 1587:27 545  42  922 1.59 50.68 907 1.92 -0.33
ELLIS      44 1584:18 805  62  922 2.35 70.76 912 2.68 -0.33
TELLQVIST  22 871:55  413  33  920 2.27 37.57 909 2.59 -0.31
KHABIBULIN 50 1943:04 850  77  909 2.38 86.75 897 2.68 -0.3
OSGOOD     43 1728:03 663  58  912 2.01 66.61 899 2.31 -0.3
AULD       32 1199:26 520  42  919 2.1  47.57 908 2.38 -0.28
VOKOUN     69 2910:13 1510 122 919 2.52 134.5 910 2.77 -0.26
LUONGO     73 2908:45 1318 103 921 2.12 115.7 912 2.39 -0.26
GERBER     57 2248:37 1086 94  913 2.51 103.2 905 2.75 -0.24
BIRON      62 2427:39 1241 95  923 2.35 103.5 916 2.56 -0.21
DIPIETRO   63 2631:01 1173 106 909 2.42 114.4 902 2.61 -0.19
LALIME     32 1267:26 561  54  903 2.56 57.76 897 2.73 -0.18
NIITTYMAKI 28 938:43  474  45  905 2.88 47.46 899 3.03 -0.16
THEODORE   53 2243:30 967  87  910 2.33 92.65 904 2.48 -0.15
LABARBERA  45 1721:56 945  86  908 3.00 90.3  904 3.15 -0.15
TOSKALA    66 2720:58 1201 111 907 2.45 116.6 902 2.57 -0.12
KIPRUSOFF  76 3087:15 1379 118 914 2.29 123.7 910 2.40 -0.11
WARD       69 2718:41 1233 113 908 2.49 117.6 904 2.60 -0.1
LECLAIRE   54 2075:24 880  67  923 1.94 70.49 919 2.04 -0.1
TURCO      62 2556:30 1022 91  910 2.14 94.91 907 2.23 -0.09
MILLER     76 3130:07 1399 122 912 2.34 125.8 910 2.41 -0.07
BUDAJ      35 1405:13 587  52  911 2.22 52.53 910 2.24 -0.02
BACKSTROM  58 2441:35 1110 90  918 2.21 89.42 919 2.20 0.01
NABOKOV    77 3266:15 1190 109 908 2 10 7.49  909 1.97 0.03
NORRENA    37 1359:34 548  57  895 2.52 53.55 902 2.36 0.15
HARDING    29 1141:15 578  54  906 2.84 51.01 911 2.68 0.16
RAMO       22 954:17  453  46  898 2.89 43.27 904 2.72 0.17
MASON      51 1902:51 850  86  898 2.71 80.27 905 2.53 0.18
SABOURIN   24 854:58  383  38  900 2.67 35.36 907 2.48 0.19
KOLZIG     54 2292:20 929  98  894 2.57 89.88 903 2.35 0.21
SMITH      34 1433:34 597  64  892 2.68 58.21 902 2.44 0.24
ROLOSON    43 1670:23 795  79  900 2.84 71.72 909 2.58 0.26
EMERY      31 1205:08 505  52  897 2.59 46.44 908 2.31 0.28
GARON      47 1848:13 882  87  901 2.82 78.14 911 2.54 0.29
HEDBERG    36 1384:59 676  73  892 3.16 64.26 904 2.78 0.38
HOLMQVIST  47 1932:04 760  91  880 2.83 68.73 909 2.13 0.69
TOIVONEN   23 842:20  359  51  857 3.63 38.76 892 2.76 0.87

Labels: Goaltending, Shooting