Monday, September 8, 2008
Canadian Junior A NCAA/Major Junior Equivalencies
I now have five-to-seven years of player data for Canadian Junior A leagues, so it's now possible to generate equivalencies for each league. I ran the data for British Columbia (BCHL), Alberta (AJHL), Saskatchewan (SJHL), Manitoba (MJHL), Ontario (OPJHL), Quebec (QJAHL) and the Maritimes (MJAHL).
The Quebec and Maritimes leagues did not send a significant number of players to the NCAA, and few players went from the SJHL to Major Junior. The Manitoba league was more likely to send players to other Junior A league than to have them step up to a higher-level of hockey.
Here are the equivalencies normalized to a player age of 18:
A huge drop from the USHL to the Junior A leagues - but not a huge difference among the Canadian leagues. The AJHL seems to have a higher level of play.
Less of a difference this time, but again the AJHL is on top.
Note that the equivalency is in this table is actually for Junior A to Major Junior so that we can compare the relative performance of players stepping up a level of hockey versus those stepping down. Junior A leagues appear substantially less difficult for players coming from Major Junior than they did to players going in the other direction.
Overall, assuming that the level of play is identical in all three Canadian major Leagues (which has been shown elsewhere on this site), then the BCHL and AJHL appear to have the highest level of play of all the Junior A leagues.
The Quebec and Maritimes leagues did not send a significant number of players to the NCAA, and few players went from the SJHL to Major Junior. The Manitoba league was more likely to send players to other Junior A league than to have them step up to a higher-level of hockey.
Here are the equivalencies normalized to a player age of 18:
Junior A to NCAA | EQUIV | Mean Age | N |
*USHL | 0.66 | 19.41 | 384 |
AJHL | 0.39 | 18.38 | 91 |
BCHL | 0.34 | 18.34 | 190 |
OPJHL | 0.32 | 18.33 | 94 |
SJHL | 0.31 | 18.37 | 42 |
Junior A to Major Junior | EQUIV | Mean Age | N |
AJHL | 0.61 | 17.43 | 48 |
BCHL | 0.57 | 18.70 | 34 |
QJAHL | 0.51 | 18.51 | 30 |
MJAHL | 0.47 | 17.62 | 31 |
OPJHL | 0.44 | 18.44 | 217 |
Major Junior to Junior A | EQUIV | Mean Age | N |
BCHL | 0.33 | 18.37 | 33 |
SJHL | 0.27 | 19.17 | 29 |
AJHL | 0.22 | 18.80 | 43 |
QJAHL | 0.21 | 18.71 | 85 |
MJAHL | 0.20 | 19.23 | 19 |
OPJHL | 0.17 | 18.20 | 71 |
Note that the equivalency is in this table is actually for Junior A to Major Junior so that we can compare the relative performance of players stepping up a level of hockey versus those stepping down. Junior A leagues appear substantially less difficult for players coming from Major Junior than they did to players going in the other direction.
Overall, assuming that the level of play is identical in all three Canadian major Leagues (which has been shown elsewhere on this site), then the BCHL and AJHL appear to have the highest level of play of all the Junior A leagues.
Labels: Equivalencies, junior hockey, Projections
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I was wondering if you could explain what EQUIV means to me.
Junior A To Major Junior:
BCHL 0.57
Does this mean that the average player going from the BCHL to Major Junior scores 57% of his Junior A points in the new league? Is it goals?
Thank you, love your work.
Junior A To Major Junior:
BCHL 0.57
Does this mean that the average player going from the BCHL to Major Junior scores 57% of his Junior A points in the new league? Is it goals?
Thank you, love your work.
yes, exactly. A guy who scores 1 point per game in the BCHL scores 0.57 points per game in Tier I junior.
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