Friday, April 24, 2009

2008-09 5v5 Goaltender Performance

Last year, I posted my methodology for calculating the quality of shots faced by a goaltender, along with the results of this analysis.

The 2008-09 results are below (minimum 700 minutes played at 5v5). The last column, DELTAGAA, shows how much lower a goaltender's Goals-Against-Average was than we would expect it to be given the shots he faced. Henrik Lundqvist, Tim Thomas and Jonas Hiller are the only goaltenders who appear in the Top 10 both this year and last year.

At any rate, here are the top 10:

TIM THOMAS 54 937 1.87 911 2.64 -0.77
NIKOLAI KHABIBULIN 42 927 1.94 902 2.64 -0.70
ROBERTO LUONGO 54 931 1.90 906 2.59 -0.69
HENRIK LUNDQVIST 69 913 2.38 890 3.00 -0.63
TOMAS VOKOUN 59 931 2.25 913 2.84 -0.59
KARI LEHTONEN 46 917 2.73 900 3.29 -0.56
JONAS HILLER 46 927 1.90 906 2.46 -0.56
MARTIN BRODEUR 31 930 1.90 912 2.38 -0.49
CRAIG ANDERSON 31 922 2.62 909 3.09 -0.47
MANNY FERNANDEZ 28 921 2.18 905 2.64 -0.45

Full stats for this season and last available at:

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Awesome! Thanks for doing this.
Great work, as always.

A couple of points/observations:

1. The numbers indicate that Boston's excellent team EV save percentage is primarily a product of goaltending, rather than defence. Likewise for Florida.

2. It would appear that the Blackhawks are poor at preventing high quality shots against, relative to total shots against. Minnesota, on the other hand, is excellent.

3. Some of the goalies that have performed poorly this year in terms of (EV) save percentage, such as Osgood and Toskala, appear to have faced more difficult shot quality.

4. Arena bias has an affect on some of the numbers. MSG seriously underestimates shot distance, whereas the reverse is true for HSBC and St. Pete Times. Thus, the numbers for Miller, Smith, and Lundqvist may not be strictly representative of the true quality of shots faced.
but it looks like he factored out a good bit of the sample (i.e. - home games?).

i'm assuming one of those mis-labeled numbers in the second chart is shots faced, and for every goalie it is less than their season totals.
The shot totals are only for 5v5, so obviously they will be less than a goalie's overall shot total.
JLikens - on #4 - I read your post on this issue. I'll split the results by home and road when I get a chance and we can see what the influence was.
the sortable stat format is sweet! if you add the ability to filter home/road, it'd be cool to also be able to filter by minimum number of shots.
"JLikens - on #4 - I read your post on this issue. I'll split the results by home and road when I get a chance and we can see what the influence was."Nice. I look forward to seeing the results.
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