Sunday, June 28, 2009
Swedish Elite League NHLE with TOI
My attempts to analyze NHL Equivalencies have always been hampered by the question of usage. The NHL has published player ice time (TOI) data for over ten years, but other leagues have been slower to publish the data, either because they didn't track it officially or because they released only a very limited number of statistics to the public.
The Swedish Elite League has now published TOI for two seasons, which allows me to include ice time in the equivalencies. There aren't a huge number of players who've played significant time in both leagues the last two seasons, and because we only have one past season of SEL data, most of the players in question went from the NHL to the SEL, which is not the preferred direction for an equivalency study.
Here's the list:
Players retained approximately 78% of their ice time when they went from the SEL to the NHL, and 57% of their per-game scoring. However, if we compare scoring on a per-minute basis, giving each player 22.2% more ice time, they retain 72% of their scoring. In other words, given equal ice time, we would expect them to score 26% more than they do*. But it's not true for everyone. Victor Hedman played over 21 minutes already as an 18-year-old in Sweden, so it's difficult to imagine him playing much more than that as a rookie in the NHL. Obviously we expect huge skills growth for teenagers, but a 40-point season would be a tremendous achievement for Hedman in Tampa Bay.
*In a previous analysis, I found that when we adjusted AHL players for PP scoring, their NHL Equivalency was 32% higher than if we ignored usage. The usage factor in the SEL and AHL seems to be similar.
The Swedish Elite League has now published TOI for two seasons, which allows me to include ice time in the equivalencies. There aren't a huge number of players who've played significant time in both leagues the last two seasons, and because we only have one past season of SEL data, most of the players in question went from the NHL to the SEL, which is not the preferred direction for an equivalency study.
Here's the list:
Dir TOI SEL TOI NHL % TOI SEL/82 NHL/82 +22% TOI
Joe DiPenta SEL 18.4 10.6 57.9 10 18 23
Kris Beech SEL 18.5 11.5 62.1 62 36 46
Mathias Tjarnqvist SEL 21.2 13.7 64.3 43 12 15
Ossi Vaananen SEL 21.2 14.3 67.6 27 9 11
Jaroslav Hlinka SEL 19.5 13.9 71.3 84 36 47
Petr Tenkrat SEL 17.0 12.5 73.6 43 18 23
Ronald Petrovicky SEL 10.5 8.3 79.1 9 16 20
Jan Hlavac SEL 19.1 15.2 79.3 73 36 46
Josef Melichar SEL 19.3 18.8 97.6 13 14 18
Michael Holmqvist SEL 12.7 14.0 109.7 26 17 22
Patric Hornqvist NHL 17.8 11.4 64.0 46 21 26
Josef Melichar NHL 19.3 13.8 71.4 13 19 24
Ossi Vaananen NHL 21.2 17.9 84.5 27 18 24
Fabian Brunnstrom NHL 12.9 11.6 89.9 56 43 56
Jonas Frogren NHL 17.3 13.4 77.5 2 14 18
17.9 14.0 77.8 38 22 28
Players retained approximately 78% of their ice time when they went from the SEL to the NHL, and 57% of their per-game scoring. However, if we compare scoring on a per-minute basis, giving each player 22.2% more ice time, they retain 72% of their scoring. In other words, given equal ice time, we would expect them to score 26% more than they do*. But it's not true for everyone. Victor Hedman played over 21 minutes already as an 18-year-old in Sweden, so it's difficult to imagine him playing much more than that as a rookie in the NHL. Obviously we expect huge skills growth for teenagers, but a 40-point season would be a tremendous achievement for Hedman in Tampa Bay.
*In a previous analysis, I found that when we adjusted AHL players for PP scoring, their NHL Equivalency was 32% higher than if we ignored usage. The usage factor in the SEL and AHL seems to be similar.
Labels: Equivalencies
// posted by Hawerchuk @ 12:03 PM 
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