Behindthenet Blog

I'll introduce the details behind leverage later, but for now I'll just give a short explanation. I'm going to define the leverage of a game state - that is, goal differential and time remaining in the game - as the value in Wins of scoring an additional goal minus the cost in Wins of allowing an additional goal. A simple example:

A game is tied at 19:59 of the third period. If your team scores, it will get two points in the standings = 1 Win. If your team is scored on, it will get no points. So the leverage in this situation is 1 Win, which is the highest possible leverage. Using historical data, we can calculate the leverage for every game state.

The average leverage during 2008-09 was 0.329. The top 25 players in leverage (defined as sum(leverage*shift length)/total toi) are shown below, minimum 600 minutes TOI:

Player          Pos     Lev.    %TOI
ANTTIPIHLSTROM  LW      0.3616  12.3
ANDREWFERENCE   D       0.3607  20.3
BRANDONCROMBEEN RW      0.3604  20.9
SAMUELPAHLSSON  C       0.3604  23.8
JEFFWOYWITKA    D       0.3596  24.1
MIKEWEAVER      D       0.3595  20.1
BRADWINCHESTER  RW      0.3587  15.8
BARRETJACKMAN   D       0.3576  38.3
ROBNIEDERMAYER  C       0.3567  24.6
JAYMCCLEMENT    C       0.3563  27.3
MILANMICHALEK   RW      0.3560  28.5
MANNYMALHOTRA   C       0.3551  27.8
TRAVISMOEN      LW      0.3551  25.0
ZDENOCHARA      D       0.3551  41.7
MIKEGREEN       D       0.3537  34.8
JANHEJDA        D       0.3536  36.6
JAYMCKEE        D       0.3529  23.9
TIMGLEASON      D       0.3519  29.0
SCOTTGOMEZ      C       0.3518  31.9
P. J.AXELSSON   C       0.3517  24.6
BLAIRBETTS      C       0.3516  17.0
JERREDSMITHSON  C       0.3512  23.0
DAVIDBACKES     RW      0.3510  29.2
JOELWARD        RW      0.3508  25.4
BRETTFESTERLING D       0.3508  13.5

We've already identified many of these players as ones who get tough icetime, either by Quality of Competition metrics or through their percentage of "late-and-close" icetime. But some, like Mike Green, didn't make either of those lists despite being on the ice in a lot of tough situations. Not every method is perfect!

Here's the bottom 25:

Player          Pos     Lev.    %TOI
THOMASPOCK      D       0.2818  15.2
BORISVALABIK    D       0.2899  15.5
CHRISBUTLER     D       0.2920  15.8
PHILIPPEBOUCHER D       0.2951  16.6
MICHAELRUPP     LW      0.2974  12.8
ZACHBOGOSIAN    D       0.2989  16.9
JEFFFINGER      D       0.2991  27.1
RICHPEVERLEY    C       0.2995  21.2
ANDYGREENE      D       0.3001  16.1
JOHNMITCHELL    C       0.3002  21.1
NATHANOYSTRICK  D       0.3003  16.8
KYLETURRIS      C       0.3008  16.5
DOUGWEIGHT      C       0.3009  19.4
BOBBYHOLIK      C       0.3009  12.8
KEITHYANDLE     D       0.3010  23.0
BRIANROLSTON    C       0.3011  19.5
NICLASHAVELID   D       0.3011  32.4
ARRONASHAM      RW      0.3016  13.6
JORDANLEOPOLD   D       0.3018  31.4
TIMCONNOLLY     C       0.3018  18.3
ILYAKOVALCHUK   RW      0.3019  34.5
DAVIDHALE       D       0.3023  14.7
OLLIJOKINEN     C       0.3023  28.9
NIKOLAIKULEMIN  LW      0.3024  20.3
NIKLASHAGMAN    LW      0.3025  22.2

Clearly some of these players, including the large number of Toronto and Atlanta players, make this list because their teams were so bad that there weren't any high-leverage situations to play in at all. This method is probably not very useful at the bottom end, but hopefully it gives some insight into who got the toughest minutes on the best teams.

Labels: Leverage