Behindthenet Blog

The NHL statistical database has been consistent for the four seasons since the lockout (Missed Shots were excluded in the two seasons prior to it). Here are the rebound scoring leaders:

Player     Shot  G  SOG  MS
Parise     73   22  41   10
Svatos     49   20  23    6
E Staal    81   19  50   12
Frolov     53   18  28    7
Antropov   50   17  26    7
Jokinen    73   17  43   13
Gomez      47   16  23    8
Zubrus     47   16  18   13
Arnott     54   16  29    9
D. Roy     56   16  28   12
Vermette   63   16  36   11

The worst? Alexei Kovalev, with just one goal on 42 total rebounds...

Labels: rebounds, Shooting

I modified the 5-on-5 statistical reports for 2008-09 so that they're vastly easier to use. There are four reports:

Corsi Report
Quality of Competition Report
Goal-Scoring Report
Penalties Drawn/Taken Report

Let me know what you think!

Labels: updates

As we saw a few weeks ago, Jacques Lemaire’s defensive system substantially limits the rate at which opponents take high-percentage shots against his teams. This effect has been persistent over the course of nearly a decade. This made me wonder what impact other coaches have on shots faced by their teams.

What the chart below shows is - for each coach in all years that he coached - the difference between league-wide save percentage and the save percentage each team expected given the shots they allowed.

Coach      +EXS% YRS
Lemaire     4.3  7
Hitchcock   3.4  5
B. Sutter   2.8  5
Mactavish   2.0  7
Julien      2.0  4
Trotz       1.7  7
Martin      1.3  6
Wilson      1.2  6
Ruff        0.9  7
Quinn       0.8  4
Tippett     0.3  6
Crawford   -0.8  6
Tortorella -1.0  6
Maurice    -1.0  4
Carlyle    -1.3  4
Gretzky    -1.5  4
Quenneville-1.7  6
A. Murray  -2.3  6
Babcock    -2.3  6
Laviolette -3.2  5
Hartley    -3.5  4

As you can see, Lemaire stands out, though it would be interesting to see how the shot location chart looks for Hitchcock's teams. Bob Hartley brings up the rear for coaches who coached four seasons or more - his poor performance may be entirely due to having Ilya Kovalchuk on the ice most of the game.

Labels: Coaching, Shooting

Following up on this table, here are 5v5 Quality of Competition percentiles for each of the players. (Quality of Competition is calculated using Willis' method with the following modifications - only 5v5 points are included, and all opponents are included, not just forwards.)

Rob Schremp appears to have been sheltered...

Player QoC  GP-G-A1-A2   +/-
Wolski   86  65-19-13-6   42/42
Schremp  41  63-12- 5-8   34/13
Bolland  83  65-14- 9-5   32/19
Bickel   32  56-14- 5-3   32/36
Garlock  95  51-8- 14-7   36/20
Berti    78  64-6- 11-7   38/35
Meidl    82  66-5-  7-7   33/29
Kennedy  85  62-11-11-4   38/36
Reddox   82  66-15-10-6   39/41
McGrath  96  67-10-11-9   45/43
Kell     69  62-7-  8-5   26/14
Pisellini67  67-4-  3-4   25/17
Haskins  78  61-5-  9-2   28/14
Kaleta   56  65-4-  4-4   18/34
Rizk     92  67-5-  6-4   21/33
Morrison 45  64-10- 7-7   38/31
Pitton   79  66-8-  3-4   25/36
Stewart   9  57-4-  4-2   14/23

Labels: junior hockey, Quality of Competition

Niklas Backstrom is a mystery to me - is he a great goalie? Or did Minnesota limit his exposure. The Wild's Chris Snow clearly feels that both are true. Depending on your angle, the numbers back up both opinions.

Shot Quality and the Minnesota Wild

I've written about this topic from various angles, here and here.

Labels: Puck Prospectus, Shooting

I haven't found much reason to write about major league baseball recently, but this piece by Jayson Stark about the MLB draft really irks me:

Draft in desperate need of repair

Stephen Strasburg just signed for $15 million - not $50 million - and yet Stark quotes an AL exec: "That's still a gigantic amount of money. Don't kid yourself."

Except it's not. Not in baseball. Carl Pavano pitched 26 games over four seasons and made $38 million. Carlos Silva's in the second year of a 5-year, $60 million contract. His ERAs since he signed: 6.46 and 8.48. That puts the price of a pitcher who has proven himself incapable of getting hitters out or staying healthy at the major-league level is $10-$12 million per season. The Washington Nationals will control Stephen Strasburg for three major-league seasons for barely $16 million, a vast discount over his real value. Top picks bring great value - Justin Upton has cost the Arizona Diamondbacks just over $7 million, but his production will be worth $20 million by season's end.

And Stark wants you to know that he's not just shilling for management: "It's because players want it...big league players want those $15 million deals going to them, not to kids who have never played a professional baseball game."

Of course veteran players want more money - they got robbed of their signing bonuses and were paid at a discount for their first 3-6 seasons. Now they want as big a piece of the pie as possible. But that's not a good reason for Stark to want to squeeze amateur players. Would Stark want anybody to take a 50% or 75% discount in any other career? I think not.

"What are the risks of losing a faceoff in the defensive zone in comparison to the neutral zone, and does a coach`s usage of players in faceoffs affect player performance?"

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=239

Labels: Faceoffs, Puck Prospectus